Global Lockdown: Reminisces and Repercussions.

Global Lockdown: Reminisces and Repercussions.

1* Dr. Rahul Sadashiv Kharat.

1. Department of Commerce, M. S. Kakade College, Someshwarnagar.

*email of corresponding author: srass229@gmail.com

Introduction:
A Lockdown is nothing but an emergency protocol issued by highest authority in any industry, business organization or a government; that usually prevents or restrict people or information from leaving an area. The purpose of lockdown may be to protect people or information from a risk, threat or any other external event. There are basically four types of Lockdown i.e. Emergency lockdown, Preventive lockdown, Drill lockdown and Full lockdown.
Emergency lockdown:
Emergency lockdowns are declared when there is substantial risk or threat to human beings and lives on earth.
Preventive lockdown:
Preventive lockdown is a situation in which preemptive action plan is executed to ensure safety and security of people, organization and system from unusual scenario or weakness.
Drill lockdown:
Drill lockdown is nothing but lockdown of particular area or building in which such building or area is restricted from entry or exit for people. The purpose of such lockdown is to reduce the risk or threat or restrict the area or number of people from spread of such risk or threat.
Full lockdown:
Full lockdown is nothing but lockdown in particular area i.e. city, state or nation. It strictly restricts people to enter or exit such city, state or nation during the lockdown period.

History of Lockdown: 
According to Mr. Modzeleski, ‘Lockdown’ tactics were first developed in late 1970’s, possibly in South California in Los Angeles Unified School District. The purpose of such lockdown was to secure school children’s from street level crime and frequent shooting. But this is not that much true. As we look at the past, we should come to know that, the word lockdown is as old as evolution of industrialization. It is frequently used in context of various labour organizations in different countries of Europe, where labour organization took lead to lockdown industries to ratify their demands of pay and many more. The context in which we look towards lockdown history, we can say that the first official lockdown to protect lives of human being is declared in late 1970’s. But it is not true because lockdown is one of the old measures of 16th and 17th century, where Italy had declared full force lockdown during the Plague pandemic in Florence. There were no vaccine or therapeutic drugs to cure from disease, so confinement and quarantine have been prominent and proven measures taken across the world during the various kinds of Pandemics all over the world. In 21st century, there were various incidences in which lockdown took place.
In 2001, three days civilian airspace lockdown were initiated in the wake of the 11th September 2001 air attack.
In 2008, six hours lockdown were initiated at University of British Columbia on 30th Jan 2008, when an unknown threat was made.
In 2008, George H. Henry Academy, Toronto and New Westminster School, British Columbia were locked down on 10th April 2008, due to suspected firearm threats.
In 2013, entire Boston City was locked down on 19th April 2013, during the manhunt for terrorist Dzhokhar and Tamerlan Tsarnaev.
In 2015, Brussels city was locked down for a day while security services sought suspects involved with November 2015 Paris attack.
In 2019, Indian government imposed total lockdown in August 2019 at state Jammu and Kashmir for three month and extended to six month, after revocation of the special status.
In 2020, due to the Corona Virus Pandemic in all over the world, Most of the nations declared total lockdown to prevent and restrict the disease and to save the life of people. 

Repercussions of the Lockdown:
There is popular say in English, “we are responsible for our own misery”. Lockdown is nothing but effect of adversity caused by human being. This time China is under the scanner of world leaders due to doubt of intentional spread of Corona virus pandemic all over the world. Current world lockdown situation is an effect of a Corona Virus Pandemic. Whatever may be the causes, lockdown has adverse effect on human being and its allied activities. These effects depend on area, size, period and location of the Lockdown. For this article purpose writer has focused of factorial repercussions of Lockdown. These factors are given as below:
1. Economic effects.
2. Psycho-social effects. 
3. Political effects.
4. Other effects.

1. Economic effects:
Government of India declared total Lockdown on 23rd March 2020. After implementation of decision agricultural sector, Industries, banking and other services are totally shut their door and stopped their smooth functioning. So, total economic cycle has been collapsed. So, lockdown in India has been hugely disruptive. Various credit rating agencies, experts in the field and world bank chief has already downgraded India’s growth for fiscal year 2021 and will reach to lowest of last 30 years. Chief economic advisor of GOI, Krishnamurthy Subramanian predicted negative growth rate in FY 2021 and advised PMO, to prepare from the same to save economy. Due to unfruitful decisions of central government like Demonetization, GST reform, privatization of public sector industries, Indian economy was in continuous trouble. Lockdown made addition to the same. So, there is continuous fall GDP of India. The quarterly GDP growth has consistently fallen since Q4 of FY 2018. The India-Economic forecasts 2020-2022 Outlook has predicted negative growth rate (i.e. -7.2%) for Q2 of FY 2020 and -3.4% for Q3 of FY 2020 whereas current account GDP will be -1.6 for the same period. The deficit for Balance of Trade will be US$ 14200 million & US$ 9300 million for same period. Current account deficit will be reach to US$ 8000 million & US$ 7000 million. 
Considering the above challenges,  he  also estimated a stimulus of US$ 10 trillian to overcome on this crisis. It may be increased to double, if lockdown situation is extended for further two month.
As per the experts, Indian economy is expected to lose everyday US$ 4.5 billion approximately.  Lockdown significantly affected on all the three sectors of economy i.e. Agriculture, Industry and Service sector.

Agriculture Sector:   
Indian economy is an agrarian economy. Till today,  it contribute to 23% to the GDP of India. Even after enough Liberalization, Privatization and globalization, more than 42% of population of India is directly depend on Agriculture whereas more than 12% population of the nation is indirectly depends upon allied activities of agriculture and bye product processing of agriculture. So total population depends on agriculture is more than 50%. Due to the lockdown all agricultural activities are totally stopped. Crops are ready to send in the market but there is no labour available for work, transport facility is also not available. So the farmer’s investment in agriculture is not yet recovered. Farmers use to take loan from banks and cooperative societies. There is no option to sell their final product in the market. So their investment is not released and they fail to return their dues. So banks and cooperative societies are not ready to give them loan for further farming activities. It is affected not only on farmers but also effects on bank and cooperatives.

Industrial Sector:
Industrial sector is one the important sector in India. It contributes to 32% to GDP of India and provides employment to more than 10% of working population of India, directly or indirectly. But due to total lockdown, all kind of small, middle and large scale industries have shut their doors. Production, distribution and selling activities and other financial and non-financial operations are also subsiding. Labour and employees are not working even after willing to work but companies are bound to pay wages and salaries to them. So industries are in trouble due to financial crisis. At the same time new startups have also been impacted due to fallen in funding. According to the joint survey conducted by FICCI and DHRUVA advisors, there will be deep impact of lockdown on industrial sector due to unprecedented collapse of all kind of Industrial activities. There could be permanent impairment of some large scale industries.
Considering such worsen situation most of the industries hold their installation and/or expansion plan of new/existing units for a year or more. Fund raising plans are also postponed for the same period. They are also facing heavy losses in import and export activities.
There is also a risk of unwanted external reconstruction, amalgamation or merger of the important industries. So, Indian industries can lose their ownership if large share of their investment is acquired by foreign investors especially country like expansionist China is keen interested in acquisition of Indian industries.
Service Sector:
Service sector plays crucial role in Indian economy. It contributes to 63% to the GDP of India and provides more than 27% employment direct and indirectly.  Due to lockdown major services have either shutdown or run in a very limited manner. Service sector in India are very capital intensive. Also most of them are labour intensive. Government of India requested them, not to lay off them and cut their wages and salaries. IT sector allows their employees to work from home; it is possible to work to certain extend only. Top 10 service sectors like health & medical services, Hotel & restaurants, Insurance, Road transport, Railways, public administrations, education, consultancies and recreation services contributes 69% to total GDP of service sector. Most of these service operations are stopped totally due to total lockdown in European and western countries. So, service sector is going to go sick very fast. 

2. Psycho-social effects:
Human being is a social animal. “To stay together and stay happy” is social as well as psychological need of every human being. To stay in touch and share every kind of feeling to each other make them happy, relax and reduce their sorrow. Lockdown forcefully restricted them to do so and keep physical distance from each other. Being isolated from family, relatives, friends and colleagues can be unbalanced and traumatic for most of the persons. It may cause mental and physical problems. The diseases like anxiety, aggression, depression, memory loss, fantasy and many more psychological effects.
Staying with family for all time in a confined place is not at all rosy picture for everyone. It becomes oppressive for most of the low income group families, especially women and children. As per the government reports, cases of domestic violence have also been increased to two fold during the period of lockdown. Negligence towards senior citizen and bed reddens are also increased. Children don’t have option to play or enjoy high cost electronic games. School going children between age group 6-14, missing there playtime with their regular peers, causes making them irritable, nervous and tense.   

3. Political effects:
Most of the developed and developing countries have adopted capitalistic model of economy. Even developing countries like India are also on the way of capitalism. After formation WTO and signing GATS agreement, no countries of the world have option to capitalism. But after the COVID-19 pandemic, most of the Industries and services has been shut their door for more than a month. Countries having financial stability and power fail to control deaths and diseases. People of these nations realize that, this model of development is totally useless and worthless in terms of security and assurance of human life. So, capitalistic model is a havoc and outdated. Human being requires health assurance and strong infrastructural facilities instead of nuclear bombs, mission Mars and many more. So, there will be chances to change political agenda of all the political parties of most of the nations of the world. The political party which will focus and will give assurance basic and security needs fulfillment will come in to power in near future. So, most of the capitalistic countries may become more socialistic and caring for human being and nature.



4. Other effects:
1. Due to lockdown large scale industries and IT sector companies may cutoff 25% of their employees, to survive from losses. So more than 10 crore youth of the world may be job less in next six month. Same problem may arise in India.
2. Countries like India, more than 80% working population is working in an unorganized sector. They don’t have any kind of job assurance, as they are working on contract basis or piece rate basis. Due to lockdown more than 40% people lost their job and don’t have option to earn money and survive themselves and their family. GOI has not taken firm stand to pay them during the period of lockdown. So, their employers don’t have compulsion to pay them for period of lockdown. Most of them refuse to pay. So, cases of privation, malnutrition and starvation have been increased in developing and under developed countries during the period of lockdown.

Positive impact of Lockdown:
1. Lockdown shuts door of all industries in the world. Due to this, air, water and noise pollution is completely reduced. All the water resources become clean due to compete stoppage of disposal of hazards waste in water resources.
2. Environmental experts and scientists says that, there is automatic repairs in Ozone layers, so that threats of global warming may reduce at some extent. First time in last thirty years, people of Jalandhar (Panjab) saw mountain Himalaya from their native place.
3. Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Kanpur and Kolkata are highly polluted cities of the India and world also. Due to lockdown, air pollution of these cities is completed stopped and people and animal enjoyed clean and fresh air after long time.
4. Lockdown forcefully restricted to people to stay at their home. So, most of the wild animals and birds exiled due to deforestation returned at their home, and seen wondering at street in many cities and villages.
5. Ever after total prohibition to continue services like hotels, tourism industries, shopping malls and many more due to lockdown. It does not affect more on common people as their basic needs are fulfilled. So, lockdown proves that people can survive without prestigious needs, which is the product of capitalism. Even capitalistic world economy is collapsed due to such long term lockdown. It does not affect more on common people.
6. There may be chances of rise of new economic and political approach all over the world, which may be more socialist, human centered and may think out of rat race.
References:
1. Hendry, A.J. (2020), ‘The origin of Lockdown’, ALICE Training Institute, Ohio, pp.1-8.
2. Powar, R. (2020), ‘Psycho-social impact of the Covid lockdown’, The Tribune, accessed on Thursday 30, April 2020, 12.45 p.m.
3. Khadilkar, D. (2020), ‘17th Century Florence: When Lockdown Became a Template to Fight Pandemic’, accessed on twitter on Thursday, 30th April, 2020, 3.10 p.m.
4. Amruta, D. & Juliet, M. (2017), ‘The Role of the Service Sector In Indian Economy’, unpublished, pp.1-10.
5. World economic outlook: Jan to March, 2020.
6. Central Statistic Organization.
7. India-Economic Forecasts-2020-2022 Outlook.